Camelot to win the Epsom Derby 2012?
It’s the main Classic of the year, the Investec Derby 2012, at Epsom racecourse on Saturday, 2nd June, and here you’ll find a full Derby preview, containing the important thing Derby trends and, of course, some Derby tips (win, each way, longshot).
So let’s enter into the Derby trends…
Epsom Derby 2012 Trends
There are some key trends for that Derby, absorbed the last fifteen years, and they centre round the the surface of the market.
- Twelve from the last fifteen winners won their last race, and also the other three finished second. Therefore if your Derby fancy was third or worse before, it doesn’t look good…
- No Epsom Derby winner has started in a bigger price than 7/1 since 1998 (when the favourite would be a filly!). The year before, 1997, Entrepreneur was sent from the 4/6 favourite after winning the 2000 guineas on his previous start. He finished 4th. Since that time, Sea The heavens has done the double (2009, 11/4). This year’s hot favourite, Camelot, will even bid for the 2000 Guineas / Epsom Derby double.Epsom Derby 2012 Preview
- The very best four in the betting have won 14/15, and every one of the final thirteen Derby’s.
- Of these to be officially rated through the handicapper, all were rated 108 or even more, and all sorts of bar one were 113+
- Thirteen out of those fifteen were going back to the track within 16-30 days of their last run.
- Twelve from the last fifteen Epsom winners had had between three and five career runs, just before Derby glory.
Epsom Derby 2012 Preview
In essence, when the trends are to be believed, it is then a two horse race between impressive 2000 Guineas winner, Camelot, and impressive Dante winner, Bonfire.
However, nearly the final time there is a big upset (1997) was when impressive 2000 Guineas winner, Entrepreneur, was sent off odds on favourite and may finish only fourth..
That year, Benny The Dip, the 11/1 3rd choice, prevailed. He had finished 3rd within the Racing Post Trophy at the end of the previous year, a performance that probably entitled him to consideration in the Derby itself; after which he was second within the Sandown Classic Trial time before winning at Epsom.
Camelot is unbeaten in three races and has a perfect profile fit for that race. Each time I watch the 2000 Guineas, I’m more astounded by the way he won, and he was disappearing at the end. Whether which makes him a top drawer ten furlong horse, or a top drawer twelve furlong (Derby trip) horse, remains to appear. But he deserves to be a clear favourite for this race, in my opinion (and merely about everybody else’s).
Bonfire won in good style at York within the Dante Stakes, another top Derby trial, and he may be the clear pick of the house challenge. He and nearest rival, Ektihaam, pulled four lengths free from the form yardstick, Fencing, and it was another ten lengths to the rest. With Ernest Hemingway clearly not firing, ‘the rest’ might have been trees… or, a minimum of, non-stayers. He is another who ticks all boxes and could somewhat be an each way bet to nothing against such a strong favourite.
Main Sequence is third favourite currently and it is unbeaten. But his official rating of 106 would be the lowest in the last fifteen years a minimum of to win the Derby. On balance, that’s too big a leap of faith, even though he remains a colt of potential. I suspect he might stay even further also it wouldn't surprise me if he wound up managing a big race in the St Leger prior to the months are out.
The winner of the Sandown Trial this time around was Imperial Monarch, who is unbeaten in 2 starts.
Incredibly, to me at least, it’s 10 years since Aidan O’Brien won the Derby - with High Chapparal - which was his second string that day, as Hawk Wing (runner up) was sent off favourite.
Imperial Monarch has recorded his two wins on soft ground, and is bred on soft ground lines (German sire loved soft and dam sire, Slip Anchor, also liked it muddy). That doesn’t mean Imperial Monarch won’t act on faster, exactly that we don’t know he'll act on faster.
It was a very strange race that last day, as Joseph O’Brien brought Imperial Monarch to the near side and also the others stayed on the shorter route, the far side. That manoeuvre was probably an additional half furlong to the race distance, but was counter-balanced through the better ground he encountered as a consequence.
It might have a quantum physicist having a second doctorate in blarney to adequately assess that type of form, and Imperial Monarch can only be called a wild card. He could win, but there’s nothing so far to suggest he ought to be joint fourth favourite, in my view a minimum of.
Parish Hall is interesting. I am writing this before his run within the Irish 2000 Guineas. If he wins and wins well, already a big ‘if’, then he’d be second or third favourite.
But that race is just seven days before the Derby, and only one horse in recent memory has come to win within two weeks not to mention just one week. It’s asking too much for my money to be buying a horse bidding for a Classic double on back-to-back Saturdays.
Besides which, he’s yet to run beyond seven furlongs in the life, so an additional half mile after Saturday’s Guineas run is a massive step up in trip, and the other imponderable.
Deep-down in the midst of the unknown’s, there's a horse whose trainer is really a magician, and who is unbeaten inside a four start career. If he shows up, he’ll be worth serious respect. And his name is Kesampour. Of the Aga Khan, this chap won a muddling Group 2 last time on very soft ground.
The slow pace and deep ground may not have been to his liking and that he showed a very favourable attitude to repel two different challenges. Class horses can maintain their challenge under duress for longer, and exactly how he battled on that day showed he's guts in addition to talent.
He’s previously won on good ground so that should not be a problem for him, and I’ve were built with a little nibble at 80 on Betfair. Obviously, if he doesn’t run, I’ll lose my tenner, however i got drawn in by the odds… (He’s a best priced 33/1 with Skybet when i write, 20/1 elsewhere).
Epsom Derby 2012 Tips
That's it. In my opinion, the fancied horses will most likely fare best again, but there's a dark horse and an each way bet to nothing within the field too.
Best Epsom Derby 2012 Win Bet
Best Epsom Derby 2012 Each Way Bet
Best Epsom Derby 2012 Outsider Bet